Live prices, trends & outlook · Updated daily
735$/t
▼ 2.7%
Updated 11 Apr 2026
Based on 95 days of live data
Production Forecast
5.8
ABARES · Mt
Export Volume
4.2
ABARES · Mt
Top Export Market
EU
ABARES
Fertiliser Cost Index
128.4
ABS PPI · index
The $735/t canola price, down 2.7% and sitting below recent highs, is squeezing cash flow margins for broadacre cropping operations, particularly those with high input costs and debt servicing requirements, as the combination of elevated fertiliser costs (index 128.4) and current pricing leaves limited buffer for operational expenses. Western Australian canola growers are most exposed given the state's 35 regional score and dominance in canola production, alongside smaller-scale mixed farming enterprises in New South Wales (score 34) where drought conditions and poor soil moisture (9%) compound price pressure challenges. Advisers should immediately review clients' debt service coverage ratios, as the current farm profitability score of 36 combined with weakening canola returns indicates potential cash flow shortfalls that could impact loan repayment capacity ahead of harvest financing decisions.
Based on ABARES, BOM and RBA data · 13/04/2026
Credit risk for canola producers is deteriorating, driven by elevated borrowing costs at 8.75% for small business variable rates and a commodity price sitting only $85/t above our stress test threshold of $650/t. Western Australian canola borrowers warrant immediate attention given the state's dominant position in national production combined with its low regional score of 35, extremely dry soil moisture at 6.2%, and the sector's heavy reliance on this drought-affected region. Relationship managers should immediately review debt service coverage ratios for WA canola borrowers and establish monthly price monitoring triggers if canola falls below $700/t, as this would signal proximity to stress conditions.
For professional use only. Not financial advice.
13/04/2026
30 Days
Canola prices expected to firm slightly as European Union demand remains strong with exports at 4.2 Mt. Watch for any disruptions to shipping routes or changes in EU import policies that could impact the $735/t price level.
Next Season
The 5.8 Mt production forecast appears achievable despite mixed seasonal conditions, with Western Australia and Victoria likely to maintain strong yields. South Australia's excessive rainfall (300% of average) may create quality concerns but overall national output should remain stable.
12-Month Risk
Bear case scenario involves a global oilseed glut if major producers like Canada and Ukraine deliver bumper crops. This could pressure Australian canola below $600/t, particularly if the EU reduces import demand or increases domestic rapeseed production.
AI-generated forward outlook · 13/04/2026
Canola prices have retreated to $735/t, down 2.7%, reflecting broader grains market weakness amid mixed seasonal conditions across key growing regions. The 5.8Mt production forecast supports healthy export volumes of 4.2Mt, with the EU remaining the dominant market despite global supply competition. Seasonal risks are mounting with Queensland recording zero rainfall (0% of average) whilst South Australia experiences excessive moisture at 300% of average, potentially impacting crop quality and harvest timing. With fertiliser costs elevated at 128.4 index and no immediate biosecurity threats, price direction will largely depend on weather patterns through the critical growing season and European demand dynamics.
AI-generated · 13/04/2026
Related sectors
No active biosecurity flags for canola
Explore agricultural conditions in the main canola-producing regions of Australia.
The current canola price is $735 $/t, up 2.7% from the previous period. Last updated 11 April 2026.
agriIQ refreshes canola prices daily using data from government and industry sources. Scores and AI narratives are regenerated each morning (AEST).
Key factors include seasonal conditions (rainfall, drought), global commodity demand, exchange rates, input costs (fuel, fertiliser), biosecurity events, and trade policy. agriIQ tracks these across seven scored dimensions.
Australia is a major canola exporter. The Export Destinations chart above shows the current breakdown by destination country, based on ABS trade data.
agriIQ scores conditions across seven dimensions (farm profitability, commodity prices, seasonal conditions, input costs, exports, credit, and biosecurity) on a 0-100 scale using data from 18 authoritative Australian sources. See our methodology page for full details.
