21 April 2026
Data as of 21 Apr 2026, 05:41 pm AEST
Today
51
Yesterday
54
Last Week
54
12-Month Trend
Updated 21 Apr 2026, 05:41 pm AEST
Agricultural conditions remain challenging with a composite score of 51, reflecting mixed fundamentals across the sector. Biosecurity and export conditions provide stability at 75 and 62 respectively, with agricultural exports reaching $15.1 billion in December 2025. However, seasonal conditions deteriorated sharply to 39, driven by extreme regional divergence — Victoria recording 300% of average rainfall while Queensland sits at just 1% of average. Input cost pressure persists at 35, despite diesel falling 17% weekly to 263.5c/L, while farm profitability remains constrained at 36 with return rates of 1.8% in latest available data. Commodity prices present a mixed picture, with wine grapes surging 11% to $420/t and chickpeas gaining 4.1% to $620/t, offset by barley plunging 27.5% to $111/t and beef declining 7.2% to $8.03/kg.
AI-generated · 21 Apr 2026, 06:10 am AEST
23
Government & industry sources
43
Specialist Dale tools
118
AI narratives daily
57
SA4 sub-regions
Every score derives from publicly available Australian government and industry data — no proprietary black boxes. The scoring methodology, data sources, and ingestion schedule are documented on the site.
No active biosecurity alerts (9 diseases monitored)
How is this scored?Cash rate 4.1%, small biz variable 8.75%, rural lending +7.8% YoY, FMD -0.9% YoY
Full analysis →
Diesel 263.5 c/L (-17.3% weekly) · PPI +0.3% qoq, fertiliser -3.8% (2025-Q3) — PPI data fully stale, score weighted to diesel
VIC wettest (300% of avg), QLD driest (1% of avg)
How is this scored?ENSO / SOI
-7.47
Neutral
No strong ENSO signal — near long-term average
Niño 3.4
-0.49
Near average
Neutral sea surface temperatures
IOD / DMI
+0.15
Neutral IOD
Near average conditions
Fire Hotspots
9,486
High Fire Activity
VIIRS satellite detections over past 5 days · 464 high-confidence
Fire Activity Trend
Each bar shows total VIIRS satellite detections in a rolling 5-day window. Includes prescribed burns. The same fire may be detected across multiple satellite passes.
NSW
BURRENDONG DAM
30.1%
NSW
BURRINJUCK DAM
37.8%
NSW
KEEPIT DAM
56.7%
NT
Darwin River Dam - Intake Tower
100%
QLD
Burdekin Falls Dam
100%
QLD
Wivenhoe
87.4%
QLD
Fairbairn Dam
35.9%
SA
Mt Bold Reservoir (SA Water)
35%
TAS
GORDON LAKE - AT INTAKE
51.1%
VIC
HUME DAM STORAGE
24.6%
VIC
Dartmouth
64%
VIC
Lake Eildon
41.6%
WA
Canning Dam Storage Volume
57.4%
NSW
0-1cm
6.2%
Very Dry
NT
0-1cm
14%
Dry
QLD
0-1cm
10.4%
Dry
SA
0-1cm
5.9%
Very Dry
TAS
0-1cm
14.3%
Dry
VIC
0-1cm
7.8%
Very Dry
WA
0-1cm
6.4%
Very Dry
Almonds
8.1$/kg
▲ 0.5%
Barley
111$/t
▼ 27.5%
Beef
786.72c/kg
▼ 9%
Canola
735$/t
▼ 2.7%
Chickpeas
620$/t
▲ 4.1%
Cotton
510$/bale
▲ 3.4%
Dairy
8.42$/kg MS
▬ 0.2%
Rice
450$/t
▲ 2.8%
Sorghum
310$/t
▼ 3.5%
Sugar
480$/t
▲ 1.2%
Wheat
342$/t
▼ 2.1%
Wine Grapes
420$/t
▲ 11%
Wool
991c/kg
▼ 1.9%
Price Movement
Loading map…
Click a state to drill down to sub-regions · Hover for summary
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Ask Dale anything about Australian agricultural conditions
What’s the current outlook for beef producers in Queensland?
Queensland beef conditions are currently favourable, scoring 63/100. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator is tracking around 684 c/kg — up 4.3% from last month. Seasonal conditions are strong across the Darling Downs and Fitzroy regions with above-average rainfall in recent weeks. No active biosecurity threats are affecting cattle. The forward outlook is positive, supported by solid export demand from South-East Asian and Japanese markets.
How might El Niño affect wheat yields this season?
The current SOI reading of −8.2 indicates a developing El Niño pattern, which historically correlates with below-average rainfall across south-eastern Australia’s wheat belt. Central West NSW and the Victorian Wimmera are most exposed — our seasonal conditions scores for these regions are currently 42 and 45 respectively. If the SOI remains negative through autumn, yield reductions of 15–25% are possible in southern cropping zones. WA’s wheat belt appears less affected, scoring 61 for seasonal conditions.
Which regions are showing the highest biosecurity risk?
Biosecurity is currently scoring 74/100 nationally — no major active threats. However, there are two areas to monitor: DAFF has an active varroa mite management zone in parts of NSW’s Hunter Valley, which could affect pollination-dependent crops like almonds and canola. There’s also ongoing monitoring for lumpy skin disease in northern Queensland, though no detections have been confirmed. All other commodity biosecurity statuses are clear.
Compare credit conditions now versus six months ago
Credit conditions have tightened slightly, scoring 44/100 compared to 48 six months ago. The RBA cash rate remains at 4.10%, unchanged since November, but small business lending spreads have widened by approximately 15 basis points to 3.85% above cash rate. Agricultural credit outstanding is $94.2 billion. The outlook is for rates to remain higher for longer, with the next potential easing not expected until mid-2026 at the earliest.
