Almonds

At $8.10/kg, almond prices are providing marginal cash flow relief for established orchards with mature trees, but newly planted operations and those servicing expansion debt will struggle to cover fixed costs, particularly given the sector's high capital intensity and lengthy payback periods. South Australian growers face the greatest exposure due to the state's 45/100 regional conditions score combined with their dominance in almond production, while smaller family operations across the Murray Valley lack the economies of scale needed to absorb current input cost pressures that sit at 57/100. Advisers should immediately review debt servicing ratios for almond clients, as the combination of flat pricing and elevated production costs means many operations will breach covenant thresholds on seasonal facilities over the next six months.

Almond Market Outlook

Almond prices remain relatively stable at $8.10/kg, down just 0.5%, reflecting steady domestic and export demand despite global supply pressures. The market is being supported by consistent Asian export demand, particularly from China and India, though California's large harvest continues to weigh on global pricing dynamics. South Australia's almond sector is benefiting from the state's drier conditions which have aided harvest quality, while water availability remains the critical production factor for 2025. Key risks include potential trade disruptions with major Asian markets and ongoing competition from US almonds, with growers advised to monitor seasonal rainfall patterns as irrigation costs continue to pressure margins.