Australian Almonds Price & Market Conditions

At $8.1/kg, almond prices are delivering stable cash flows for established orchards but remain insufficient to cover establishment costs for new plantings, with mature operations generating positive operating margins whilst newer ventures face extended payback periods on capital investments exceeding $25,000 per hectare. Victorian almond growers in the Murray Valley are most exposed given the state's dominant production share and current regional score of 54, whilst smaller-scale operations under 100 hectares face disproportionate pressure from fixed costs including water charges and machinery depreciation that cannot be spread across sufficient volume. Advisers should immediately review water allocation costs as a percentage of gross revenue for clients, particularly given the current Water Allocation Index of 72%, as this input can represent 15-25% of total production costs depending on seasonal allocations and permanent water security arrangements.

Almond prices remain relatively stable at $8.10/kg despite a marginal 0.5% decline, with the export market maintaining strength at $8.40/kg driven by robust demand from India, Australia's top almond market. The 72% water allocation index provides adequate irrigation security for orchards, though this remains below optimal levels and could pressure yields if allocations tighten further. Production is forecast at 130kt, with export fundamentals supported by strong Asian demand, particularly from India where Australian almonds maintain premium positioning. Key risks include potential water allocation reductions in key growing regions and any escalation in trade tensions with major Asian markets, though current biosecurity conditions remain clear with no active disease alerts.