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Wool

Commodity detail · Prices, trends & outlook

Current Price

1285c/kg

1.8%

Updated 3 Mar 2026

12-Month Price Trend

Illustrative trend based on current price movement

Price vs 5-Year Average

Export Destinations

Indicative export share by destination · Source: ABARES

Key Sector Indicators

Eastern Market Indicator

1,245

AWI · c/kg

Pass-in Rate

8.2

AWI · %

Clip Volume

320

ABARES · kt greasy

Top Export Market

China

ABARES

Farm Business Impact

AI-generated

Wool's current price of 1285 c/kg represents a modest recovery that will provide marginal cash flow relief for sheep enterprises, particularly benefiting mixed farming operations in NSW and WA where wool income can offset weaker grain returns, though the 1.8% price increase remains insufficient to materially improve liquidity for wool-specialist operations facing input cost pressures. Victorian wool producers are most exposed given the state's 49/100 regional score reflects oversupply challenges from excessive rainfall (300% of average) creating animal health costs and quality downgrades, while smaller-scale Merino studs in South Australia operating on marginal country face the greatest financial pressure with limited diversification options. Advisers should immediately assess clients' wool debt-to-equity ratios, as operations with ratios above 40% will struggle to service existing facilities despite the price improvement, given the sector's 36/100 farm profitability score indicates systemic cash generation issues.

Based on ABARES, BOM and RBA data · 05/03/2026

Lender Considerations

AI-generated

WOOL SECTOR CREDIT BRIEF

Credit risk posture for wool producers is stable with underlying resilience, as wool prices at 1285 c/kg remain well above the 1100 c/kg stress threshold despite broader agricultural profitability pressures and elevated borrowing costs at 8.25% for small business variable rates.

South Australia wool operations warrant closest attention given the state's poor regional score of 45/100 combined with wool being a dominant commodity, while Victorian producers face additional pressure from excessive rainfall (300% of average) potentially affecting sheep condition and wool quality.

Relationship managers should review debt serviceability calculations this month for any wool clients with variable rate facilities, focusing on cash flow capacity at current 8.25% rates versus their approved serviceability ratios.


For professional use only. Not financial advice.

05/03/2026

For professional use only. Not financial advice.

Forward Outlook

30 Days

China Demand Signals Critical

Wool prices face headwinds from mixed seasonal conditions across key producing regions. Watch for Chinese textile manufacturing data and any shifts in consumer demand patterns.

Next Season

Production Volume Under Pressure

Western Australia's dry conditions may reduce wool clip quality and volumes. Victoria's excessive rainfall could impact sheep health and wool quality in the state's key producing areas.

12-Month Risk

Global Recession Kills Luxury

A global economic downturn would severely impact luxury textile demand, wool's primary market. Chinese economic slowdown or major fashion retailer bankruptcies could trigger price collapse below 1000 c/kg.

AI-generated forward outlook · 05/03/2026

AI Commodity Outlook

Wool Market Outlook

Wool prices have strengthened to 1285 c/kg, gaining 1.8% amid resilient demand from key export markets and seasonal supply constraints. The price uplift reflects improving sentiment in China's textile sector and steady European demand, supported by the Australian dollar's relative stability against major trading currencies. Victoria's exceptionally wet conditions (300% of average rainfall) may impact wool quality and shearing schedules in coming months, while global economic uncertainty continues to weigh on luxury textile consumption. Producers should monitor Chinese manufacturing PMI data and European retail sentiment, as any softening in these key markets could pressure prices below current levels.

AI-generated · 05/03/2026

Related sectors

Biosecurity & Trade Risk Flags

No active biosecurity flags for wool.

Source: ABARES Agricultural Outlook · Biosecurity & Trade